Thoughts on The Future of Car Repairs

"Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind) 05/19/2016 at 20:04 • Filed to: Repairs

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“Why do I need to remove the front bumper just to change my indicator bulb?!” Unfortunately, I think this statement will become more and more of a realty. Often we forget that from an Automaker’s perspective, the most important aspect of engineering is how quickly and consistently you can put a car together, not how simple it is to take apart or reach a failed component. As vehicles contain more parts and product demand continues to force plants to be at full capacity, Automakers are forced to come up with more efficient processes in order to increase production without adding cost to existing set ups.

Those bolts that no tool or human hand could ever reach while an engine is in the vehicle are probably exactly that! They were placed there before the engine was married to the chassis. Gottlieb was standing in middle of an empty engine bay to place that wiper motor there. The earlier in the assembly process the component is secured, the longer it will take for us to deconstruct the process, replace the part, and then reassemble everything. This adds in so much labor that DIY is dead simply due to excessive amount of specific tools, time, and space needed for the job.

This is the main reason I don’t see people doing their own repairs in the future (or now for that matter). It’s not because people don’t have the skill or interest in learning. In fact I believe vehicles will become simpler and simpler to put together and take apart! The reason DIY will continue to die out is because no one will have enough spare time to actually do the process. Who has time to find a place with tools, time, and room dedicated to doing this entire song and dance routine (plus the occasional beer and the mandated socket wrench sacrifice)? Well mechanics of course!

*Up to this point everything should sound completely familiar. Perhaps you are experiencing these same situations within your own life today? Let’s keep speculating...*

As mentioned before, someone will need to reverse the assembly process until they can reach the component they need to replace. After that, they will need to be able to reassemble everything in the correct order. The factory order will of course be the quickest and most precise method simply due to the fact that the Automaker has had the method engineered to be the quickest and most precise process possible. You now have people that need to know the method and have the tools in order to facilitate the process which will decrease labor time and stress.

All of a sudden the Automaker is equipping dealers with the tools, instructions, and training needed to handle these vehicles. The independent shops are stuck having to do a crap-ton of labor in order to do the same task. Now that the dealer has everything they need while the independent shops are stuck guessing, you have the labor times becoming significantly higher in the independent shops than with the dealer services. This means that even though the stealership charges $119 an hour compared to your indie shop’s $59 an hour for the same job, that task takes the indie shop 3 hours to manage (totaling $177 in labor) while the factory shops can do it in 1.5 hours (totaling $178.50 in labor). While the prices may still be the same to the consumer, whether or not you get your car back the same day completely changes.

As the labor needed to reach a certain component increases, the time and opportunities for mistakes increase as well. Independent shops will need to cut their prices in order to stay competitive with the dealership or become factory-supported shops themselves. Now we are talking about a world in which we have privately owned local shops working with the Automakers to acquire technician training and likely paying a monthly leasing charge for the brand specific tools supplied by the Automaker. Now these “factory certified” shops are able to do the same 3 hour job in only 2 hours. However, now they need to charge $68 an hour in labor in order to make up for the training and tool leasing fees. The Indie’s have their old value advantage against the dealerships and the Automaker now has a database and revenue stream coming in from Big Joe’s Garage and Bar-B-Cue (they got a pool table during the remodel, it’s awesome!).

The future of auto repairs becomes the following:

The amount of labor required for simple tasks cements the end of Do-It-Yourself repairs.

In the situation of Dealership vs. Indie Shop repairs, the dealership wins hands down.

Indie Shops have to deal with an Automaker in order to learn the processes for repair and receive the tooling in order to cut down on labor time. Those that do not risk losing thousands of dollars weekly attempting to compete with factory-supported shops.

Automakers no longer need to consider accessibility of components due to the only people able to work on their vehicles being solely those that have come to them for the supplies and training. Automakers now have leverage over any shops wishing to work on modern vehicles.

* Think of the McLaren 570s engine cover requiring special tools just to see that 3.8L or the Alfa Romeo 4C’s front hood not even opening. Now imagine the same inaccessibility with your Accord or Rav4. “ They never breakdown anyways, why do YOU need to reach the engine? ”*

The one great benefit to all of this is that the quality of repairs and shops will increase as well as making your mother’s Corolla S impossible to even be considered for the Qwiky-Lube’s new brake replacement service (which is now only $89 with coupon and Signature 3-Point Air Pressure Alignment). Best of all though, warranties (whether original or extended) will be backed by the factory in more situations since Big Joe’s Garage and Bar-B-Cue is certified by Audi remove the W12 in your A8 in order to replace the cabin air filter.

TheHondaBro > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 20:07

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Wobbles the Mind > TheHondaBro 05/19/2016 at 20:11

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I’m assuming it’s a hood exit exhaust. They’re pretty rare around me though.

Nimbus The Legend - Riding on air like a cloud > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 20:19

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You are absolutely onto something. Gone are the days where you could just take out the fender lining to change your blinker bulb.

I still remember the z32 300zx i had to change an alternator on. It was a PITA!

Not to mention the transverse VQs and trying to do a basic tune up where you HAVE TO remove the intake manifold!!!

I miss the old civics and old american cars...

TheHondaBro > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 20:23

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Seriously though, you’re on to something here. I was really struggling to find a jacking point under the engine of the 2015 Honda Fit. I eventually had to lift it from the side.

Urambo Tauro > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 20:25

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I used to fantasize about the new cars that I would buy if I ever became really rich. Now I fantasize about the old cars I would buy instead. Doing my own wrenching isn’t just a matter of wealth; I enjoy doing it.

citizennick > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 20:34

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I heard back in the day a technician screwed an engineers wife and this is how we got to this point.

Wobbles the Mind > Urambo Tauro 05/19/2016 at 20:38

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They’ll be like the manual transmission. Cars you can work on yourself will be more and more sought after as we are cut off from that aspect. I look at phones and tablets, if you drop them once without a cover the thing is gone and you have buy another. I liken it to backing up into a pole, the cost of all these all-aluminum body panels will either write off the car after one incident or the repair will cost the same as a 2-year lease of a newer version!

Cars becoming technology means their durability is being thrown out the window. I bet by the time autonomous cars are on the road, the average life span of these cars will only be 2 to 4 years with the original owner and virtually unusable by the time it’s been passed down to the fourth or fifth owner. This means Automaker’s see nothing but profit because everyone needs to buy new, and used dealers become reliant on CPO programs and warranties.

RallyWrench > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 20:49

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I run a small independent European shop. While cars are getting more complex, and in many cases are obviously not designed to be repaired at all (here’s looking at you, BMW), the information and special tools are out there, though often difficult to find and expensive. There are a few companies dedicated to making them available to independent shops, often engineering their own solutions and utilizing factory talent to educate independents. For manufacturer info, it’s only available in many cases because Right To Repair legislation made it so, and it’s on a subscription basis. Still, we have no problem beating our local dealers. Our cost of business goes up, but nonetheless our labor rate remains over $30/hr under the dealers.

That said, it’s not getting easier, and a lot of shops will die, just as they did in the shift from carburetion to electronic engine controls, and OBD1 to OBD2. It’s another, larger paradigm shift. The “we work on everything” model doesn’t work anymore, you have to specialize. Even working on the full range of European marques is hard, and single-marque shops may be the norm moving forward in areas with the demographics to support them.

Another shift will occur in about 10 years, I’d guess, as electrification really comes home to roost in the fleet. That’ll be a problem for many shops, because Tesla has started a model of tethering the car to the manufacturer for its lifetime, and I’m sure other manufacturers will eagerly follow, because they’ve been trying to squeeze the independents out for awhile. The simple fact is that electric cars won’t need the work that ICE cars do, and the percentage of ICE cars in the fleet is only going to diminish.

Another problem is the fact that nobody thinks businesses should be allowed to make money anymore, especially shops it seems. Every day, I have to explain why I can’t beat Amazon or Rock Auto prices, or why diagnostics cost money when YouTube videos are the solution to every problem and you “already know what the codes are.”

Only the best operations that quickly adapt to trends will survive as specialists, or will reinvent themselves into something else entirely. The industry is facing a grim future, the trade publications whine about it constantly. Good talent is hard to find, and when found costs a lot to keep from jumping to another industry with better money and benefits. Youths aren’t interested in working on cars like they once were because vocational programs are dying in our schools. That, and it’s a poor career choice. Every year the local community college brings in its automotive business class for me to talk to about the industry, and I have to bite my tongue not to say “GET THE HELL OUT!! GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN!!” I’ve been in the industry 20 years, since High School, and it’s taken my enthusiasm for cars and crushed it. I used to have a dream of owning a shop, but that’s long gone. I’m in my mid-30's and have had back surgery, having had problems since my mid-20's. Now I’m in the office, with $70,000 in tools that I paid for with my own money collecting dust, putting up with shit from the owner, the techs, and customers, because you can only please two at a time. It’s fun. Hindsight is 20/20.

In short, your point is one of many issues that are conspiring to kill the industry. I hope to be the hell out of it by the time any of this comes down.

Urambo Tauro > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 20:52

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I hate it when I see a driver treating a car like a disposable item. For automakers to adopt the same attitude is heartbreaking.

My bird IS the word > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 20:54

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As long as they don't put service parts behind some wall ( like making you remove the fender well to re move the battery CHEVY!). Most of my future toys I plan on being kit cars anyways. Screw you u.s government.

RiceRocketeer Extraordinaire > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 21:05

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I think part of this is also automakers trying to create cars with roomier interiors but smaller exterior dimensions - the engine bay component packaging gets very cramped.

Looking at my Camry’s engine bay ... it’s hilarious how lost the engine looks in there, possibly because it was designed to accommodate a V6 as well.

Supreme Chancellor and Glorious Leader SaveTheIntegras > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 21:11

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How to change head light bulbs on my 2007 Civic Si.

Option A: 1Remove front bumper (4 clips, 2 allen screws, 8 plastic tabs, 2 screws, 1 plastic cover)

2. Change bulbs

3. Put bumper back on

Option B: 1. Lift front of car up

2. Remove both front wheels

3. Pull back plastic arch covers (3 screas and various clips)

4. Remove skin from hand by reaching to swap out bulbs.

5. Put cover back on

6. Put wheels back on

I haven’t been able to do much of anything on my own cars due to either lack of space in the engine bay or lack of time to remove EVERYTHING. I miss my integra and it’s 2057493837 feet of space in its engine bay.

LOREM IPSUM > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 21:48

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My brother in law owns an ‘08 335i. Popped the hood on that thing only to find most of the engine hidden below and behind the cowl.

I have absolutely no idea how one would work on such a vehicle. I can’t imagine the headache a supposedly simple spark plug change would be, nevermind a valve cover gasket replacement ffs. Really makes me appreciate my e38 because absolutely everything is easier to access and ultimately deal with when it needs dealing with.

Brother in laws water pump crapped out about a year ago and was replaced under extended warranty. I warned him that if he didn’t proactively replace all of the hoses, and probably the expansion tank, that they’d fail one by one as time goes on because when one part goes the others are also at or near end of life. He replied that his shop was really good, etc, etc, etc, they’ll fix everything that needs to be fixed. Long story short (ish), a year later and his warranty is expired, he’s topping up his coolant every few days, and contemplating parking the car and taking the bus until he can afford to buy a tesla... because they’re reliable and won’t require repairs.

SMH.

I really would love to just fix his damn 335 for him but I want nothing to do with under that hood, and don’t want the liability if I bork something up along the way.

In the meantime everytime I see him I just urge him to bring in into an indy shop, have the system pressure tested, fix what’s leaking, and replace those hoses. Hopefully he listens before he cooks the engine.

The Crazy Kanuck; RIP Oppositelock > Wobbles the Mind 05/19/2016 at 22:47

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That why I love my engine bay. A blind monkey, with its hands tied behind its back could work in it. I have huge hands, and they look small in it.

DipodomysDeserti > Wobbles the Mind 05/20/2016 at 00:01

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I didn’t read most of that, because, holy shit dude, who has the time. But if live owned an older, carbureted automobile, for every 1 hour long light bulb change, there is a maintainemce item that takes at least an hour that you no longer have to worry about. Newer cars are much easier to maintain than older cars.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Wobbles the Mind 05/20/2016 at 01:02

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I’ll tell you why, no more exposed fasteners!

AMGtech - now with more recalls! > citizennick 05/20/2016 at 01:38

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I heard the engineer understood the theory, how it works on paper, but couldn’t quite torque the bolt down properly. But the technician, well that’s all he does is torque bolts down properly...

deekster_caddy > RallyWrench 05/20/2016 at 05:41

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I took auto mechanics at our local voc-tech high school and for years considered it for a living. At some point I realized that I enjoy working on cars because it’s more of a hobby than a career path, and went back to school for mechanical engineering. Fast forward 25 years and cars to me are a quite a bit more than for the average hobbyists/DIYer, but definitely not my career and I can choose to refuse a job if I want to. Most people do understand that cars have gotten harder to work on, but are also aware how much less maintenance and repair they requure compared to older vehicles.

TFSIVTEC drivesavolvo > RallyWrench 05/20/2016 at 06:54

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What drives me crazy as a technician is the wage stagnation, I’m not even sure if that’s the correct term for what I’m trying to describe. But with student loans for technical school, at least $50k in tools that are thankfully paid off and the crazy high living expenses it’s not a comfortable situation. I got into being a tehnican for two reasons, one being obviously I love cars, but the second being I thought it would be a good way to earn a living, HA! Hopefully the aging workforce will retire soon, dealer owners can squirm when they find out they actually have to pay people what they’re worth

adamftw > RallyWrench 05/20/2016 at 07:03

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Fantastic post. I have another point though.... Classic cars are becoming cooler. Well, muscle cars, Ferraris, etc have always been cool but take a look at recent cars trends. Prices on old Toyota trucks are INSANE, I’m watching fintail Merc prices slowly climb, and 80s/90s import sports cars are at prices that would make 2002 die with laughter.

Not all these cars are being purchased by enthusiasts who want to and can work on them. Many are being bought by a new generation of car people with some extra money (just like the guys who bought all of the 69 Camaros and Mustangs years ago) for a weekend car. These cars will need people to work on them. I’m not old, by any means, but the kids born on OBDII (and III, soon!) coming out of UTI or whatever even now a lot of the times have no idea what they’re doing if there isn’t a screen to read. You should be able to tell if a car is running lean, and have a few ideas as to why within an hour without a book or computer in front of you. OBDI sensor stuff is easy. But hey, that’s an opportunity for a specialty!

Also, muscle cars and hot rods are NEVER going away. Unless the EPA comes out and says all combustion engines are now illegal to drive forever (please don’t ever happen), all these cars need to stay on the road too. And in 10 years, how many mechanics will be left that can jet a carb, or set points with a matchbook? There is a LOT of mechanical art that will be lost in the next few years because these mechs are out of the industry and literally dying. I think I’m a pretty competent shade tree, but I grew up on EFI and ECUs. I just recently started getting into carbs and points (what the hell kind of idea was that? I mean it makes sense for the time but electronic ignition is AMAZING) by working on boats and some older cars here and there. I really want to make sure I know how this stuff works because I want to pass it on to my son (who isn’t but a small blip on my radar at this point) one day, where it will be a lost for sure. As much as it may suck, I would really like to keep an old car or something around that is purely mechanical, maybe an old Series Rover or period-correct hot rod, just because.

StndIbnz, Drives a MSRT8 > Wobbles the Mind 05/20/2016 at 08:03

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Believe it or not, we actually have a “Design for Service Efficiency” class where I work. Specifically for this reason. Have to design something so that it can be worked on by the dealer, not us, but at least by someone. Now, not everything works well, but we do try.......sometimes.

MR2_FTW - Group J's resident Stig > Wobbles the Mind 05/20/2016 at 08:04

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The solution is so easy though. Just buy an older car for cheap, and keep it running forever. Both my cars are older than I am and have worked out pretty well for me most of the time.

RallyWrench > adamftw 05/20/2016 at 12:15

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This is absolutely correct, and there will definitely be a cottage industry of old car folks (that I hope to be a part of). That said, as we move headlong into automated motoring it’s not going to get easier to use old cars on public roads, so even that will take a hit in some fashion. It won’t help that I’m in California, which for as much as car culture pervades it is the most punitive to old cars. I’m 36, and I can tune carbs and set points all day because I’m of the last generation to train under guys who lived that stuff, the guys who aged out around the time of OBDII. I’ve owned cars from the 60's since I was 15, so I’m not afraid of it. But younger folks? Forget it. I have a 26 year old tech who is really, really sharp on OBDII stuff but is almost completely lost on anything older.

RallyWrench > TFSIVTEC drivesavolvo 05/20/2016 at 13:11

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This is another huge problem. I never made more than $25 an hour as an ASE Master tech with over 15 years of experience and $70k of my own money invested in tools and diagnostic platforms. I moved into the office 3 years ago due to back problems, and I now make only about $5k a year more, being paid a percentage of the shop’s gross income. That, and my paychecks vary by over $1,000 so I can’t count on anything. And I’m in one of the better-paid markets. There are guys in the Midwest lucky to break $20/hour, though their cost of living is likely less. As it stands, it’s barely enough to support my family in the small town i grew up in here in CA, because I have to pay over $500 a month just for health insurance, plus a mortgage, kid costs, gas, and everything else. There’s no money left to save at the end of the month. Vacation? Forget it. I only get 10 days anyway, which I can’t take all at once, plus a very generous three (count ‘em three!) sick days. I work in racing on the side ostensibly because I enjoy it, but also to supplement my income.

I got into being a tech because it’s all I ever wanted to do, because I love cars, and because I was told it’s a great way to earn a living. While I’m thankful for the skill, and have done better than many others my age with student loan debt on degrees that they found out were worthless, it hasn’t come easily, and there’s not really any upward mobility from here unless I become an owner, and that dream is gone. I don’t even really like cars most of the time anymore, which is a pain in the ass because my whole life revolves around them.

RallyWrench > deekster_caddy 05/20/2016 at 13:21

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I envy you that position. I wanted to go for ME, and put myself through as much college as I could but had to make a choice between student loans and full time classes, or a career to pay the rent. It doesn’t help that math has always been very difficult for me, so I didn’t get as far as I hoped in the time I had. I’d still like to go back to school, but it’ll be awhile before I can consider that. I don’t regret the skills I’ve developed, and this career has given me some good opportunities (in racing, in particular), but nor do I regret not having crushing student loan debt. That said, I really, really wish I had been able to pursue an engineering degree. That dream hasn’t died, at least.

I don’t believe new cars need less care than older ones. That applies in some cases, of course, but in many cases, and particularly in my little corner of the industry with European cars, it seems they need more. 10 year old BMWs now routinely require at least as much investment as older models, if not more, and individual repair costs are higher. It can cost nearly double to put a transmission in an E60 BMW than what it does in an E34 or early E39, for example. Those kinds of numbers are car killers.

I ran the numbers on a client’s E38 740iL not too long ago because I was curious about this. I found that they’d spent something like $13,000 to keep that car on the road through 150,000 miles or so, including regular maintenance. An E65 7-series can consume that in 3, easily.

deekster_caddy > RallyWrench 05/20/2016 at 14:53

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The maintenance numbers can get really scary on the ‘module’ driven cars - “Powertrain Module” “Body Control Module” “Light Control Module” etc. Can’t we just have a freakin headlight switch attached to some wires?

I was working at an industrial machine shop while trying to put myself through school before I landed a spot somewhere else entirely - I ended up NOT with a career in ME, but in IT instead. However, my very strong mechanical background has given me an edge in that our IT department took over the Facilities department at the company I work for. Understanding how computers and electronics work with mechanical components (including HVAC) is a big advantage for my spot in particular, as the HVAC component is a big deal here (I work at a small biotech company).

The HVAC stuff in a building is different, but really not THAT different from what’s in a car. Heater cores, cooling cores, hot and cold water loops, pressure relief valves and water control valves, sometimes steam systems... but it’s all still heating and cooling, compressors and fans - just on a larger scale with more complicated computer systems running them.